Cacao prices hit a record of almost US$13,000 per tonne in December 2024, crashed to around US$3,000 in February 2026 and now trade near US$5,300. Behind the volatility, the supply chain is shifting: West Africa is losing ground, Europe is raising the bar, and South America is the fastest-growing origin.
The market leader: West Africa
Volume: West Africa produces roughly 60–70% of the world's cacao. Côte d'Ivoire alone harvests around 2 million tonnes a year — close to 40% of global supply — followed by Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon.
Price: farmgate prices are set by the state (Conseil du Café-Cacao in Côte d'Ivoire, COCOBOD in Ghana), which sells much of the crop forward. This gives farmers stability but delays the benefit of rising world prices: West African farmers receive about 60–70% of the world price at best. In March 2026, Côte d'Ivoire cut its mid-crop farmgate price by 57% to CFA 1,200/kg (+- US$2,100/tonne).
Why they lead:
Ideal climate — the humid tropical belt along the Gulf of Guinea suits high-volume bulk cacao.
Scale — millions of smallholder families grow cacao, built up over a century of production.
Organised state marketing — centralised selling and forward contracts give buyers predictable volumes.
Proximity to Europe — short shipping routes to Amsterdam and Rotterdam, plus large grinding plants already operating at origin (Abidjan, San Pedro, Tema).
That leadership is now under pressure — which is exactly where South America comes in.
Europe: beans are key
83% of Europe's cocoa bean imports come directly from producing countries, as do 49% of its cocoa paste and 34% of its butter imports (Eurostat/Trade Map 2026). Beans remain the entry point, but semi-processed products from origin are an overlooked opportunity.
Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana still dominate, but their exports to Europe fell 25% and 21% since 2021. Meanwhile Ecuador and Peru roughly doubled theirs. Ecuador is on course for 650,000+ tonnes in 2026/27, which could make it the world's No. 2 producer, ahead of Ghana. Still, scale matters: Peru still supplies only around 2% of world cacao.
Market & El Niño
Today the market has plenty of cacao: warehouse stocks are high and demand is weak (European grindings in Q1 2026 were the lowest in 17 years). But the next crop looks smaller. StoneX has cut its 2026/27 global surplus forecast to just 25,000 tonnes, mainly because of El Niño, which may be among the strongest in 75 years.
West Africa: drought and dry Harmattan winds reduce yields — the last El Niño triggered the 2024 price spike.
Ecuador & northern Peru: the opposite — heavy rain, flooding, fungal disease and blocked roads. Ecuador's next harvest is already expected to be about 10% lower.
The opportunity: when Africa's supply tightens, buyers look elsewhere. South America filled that gap in 2024–25 and can do so again — but only origins that keep quality and documentation consistent through bad weather will benefit.
What European buyers expect
The EUDR applies from 30 December 2026 (smaller operators: June 2027), followed by the Forced Labour Regulation (2027) and CSDDD (2029).
One certification is no longer enough; traceability and documentation are crucial.
Most buyers run a strict vendor approval process: show your volumes, certificates, export documents and EUDR status — don't just send a sample.
Start small, scale up, and build long-term partnerships, ideally with shared investment and smart financing.
South America: how can we Grow?
The region has strong assets — genetic diversity, a fine-flavour reputation, and farmers in Ecuador who receive about 90% of the world price (vs. 60–70% in West Africa). What is lacking:
Small-scale farming: most farms are under 5 ha, often yielding ~500 kg/ha where 1,000+ is possible. Stronger cooperatives, technical assistance and farm renovation are key.
Quality consistency: fermentation and drying vary and beans get mixed. Centralised post-harvest processing and clear specs are needed, with fine-flavour lots kept separate from bulk (Ecuador is ~90% CCN-51).
Logistics: remote Amazon regions, poor roads and part-container volumes. Consolidation hubs, better infrastructure and new Pacific capacity such as Chancay can help.
EUDR readiness: plot-level geolocation for every farm. Origins that are ready in 2027 will win market share.
Finance: pre-financing tied to offtake contracts and blended finance for cooperatives.
Value at origin: more local processing of paste and butter, which Europe already buys from producing countries.
Closing Note
South America will not replace Africa's volumes soon — and it doesn't need to. Its advantage is reliability, quality and transparency. Producers that organise their farmers, professionalise post-harvest, solve logistics and get EUDR-ready now will be the preferred suppliers of tomorrow.
