Peru's agro-export meets a weak (but long) El Niño test

Peru's fresh produce sector keeps setting records, but the first half of 2026 tells a more layered story. Growth is increasingly coming from price rather than volume, the competitive map of South American fresh exports has shifted, and the sector is now entering its highest-value trading months under an official El Niño alert. Below is a data-led look at what is happening, and what it means for international traders.

A Record First Half, Built on Price Rather Than Volume

●       Peru's agricultural exports reached US$5.4 billion in H1 2026, up 5% YoY.

●       Export volumes rose only 2% to 2.3 million metric tons — the growth was driven primarily by price, with the average export price climbing 4% to US$1.08 per pound.

●       This continues a deceleration trend: Q1 2026 alone grew 6.4% YoY to US$2.935 billion, well below the 16% growth recorded in Q1 2025.

●       Behind the slowdown: rising international freight costs, continued uncertainty around Middle East shipping routes pushing up logistics costs, and higher fertilizer prices squeezing margins.

Winners and Laggards of Today's Trade

●       Hass avocados: US$1.045 billion in H1 (19% of total agro-exports), +10.5% YoY — again price-driven, as constrained global supply lifted returns. Peru is targeting 1 million tonnes of avocado exports by 2030.

●       Fresh blueberries: US$405 million in H1, +50% YoY — the standout performer. Volumes rose 35% to 59,000 tonnes and prices improved from US$2.79 to US$3.11 per pound, with the season starting earlier than usual. Blueberries generated over US$2.5 billion in full-year 2025 revenue, Peru's single largest agricultural export line, and the crop has added 18 new export markets since 2022 — from Poland and Türkiye to Indonesia, Bangladesh and the Gulf states — alongside its anchor markets of the US, the Netherlands and China.

●       Fresh grapes: US$731 million in H1, +18.3% YoY on price gains (US$1.12 to US$1.30/lb), though Q1 volumes had already fallen 2% — a sign the category is holding value more than volume.

●       Mangoes: fresh and dried mango exports fell 8.3% in Q1 — one of the categories most exposed to the mid-year warmth an El Niño event brings.

●       Destination concentration: the United States remains by far Peru's dominant buyer, absorbing 38.3% of total agro-exports in Q1 2026.

Peru Has Also Quietly Overtaken Chile

●       Between January and October 2025, Peru's fruit exports reached US$11.3 billion, edging past Chile's US$10.7 billion — a reversal from 2024, when Chile still led (US$13.1B vs US$12.3B).

●       Peru's compound annual growth rate of 12.4% (2021–2024) outpaced Chile's 7.6%; Peruvian blueberry exports alone grew at an average 122% a year between 2010 and 2024.

●       Chile itself points to the drivers behind Peru's rise: a 15% corporate tax rate for the agricultural sector, expanded irrigation, airport and cold-chain investment, and the new Chancay megaport opening a direct Pacific route to Asia.

●       For international buyers, this is a genuine shift in the counter-seasonal supply map for the Northern Hemisphere winter: Peru is no longer the challenger in South American fresh produce — it is the benchmark.

The El Niño Variable

●       Peru's National Study Commission on the El Niño Phenomenon (ENFEN), with analysis from the Central Reserve Bank (BCRP), has issued a Coastal El Niño Alert.

●       The event is currently classified as weak, though ENFEN has not ruled out it reaching moderate intensity, and — unusually — it is expected to persist through December 2026, longer than a typical episode.

●       BCRP President Julio Velarde has said the phenomenon “will affect the entire coastal region, especially the northern coast,” causing a “slight alteration” of agricultural activity; the bank currently projects only a 0.1% GDP impact, far below the 1.1% contraction caused by the strong 2023 El Niño.

●       Crop-specific exposure: limes (40% of the annual harvest falls in H2), mangoes and grapes are vulnerable to mid-year warmth, and organic bananas carry flooding risk.

●       The timing matters commercially: roughly 88% of Peru's blueberry export value is generated between July and December — meaning the crop entering its highest-value window is also the one facing the longest El Niño exposure window.

Closing Note — Strategic Trade Perspective

Peru's agro-export story in 2026 is not a slowdown story, and it is not a crisis story either — it is a maturing-market story. Growth is increasingly coming from price and quality rather than sheer volume, a sign of a sector moving up the value chain rather than simply planting more hectares. The 18 new blueberry markets and the overtaking of Chile point to structural gains.

But a weak El Niño stretched across an unusually long window, landing on the July–December season that generates most of the year's blueberry and lime value, is the variable to watch. For international buyers and sourcing partners, the practical takeaways echo those from the Strait of Hormuz disruption earlier this year: diversify sourcing where possible, build in logistics and pricing flexibility for Q4, and treat supplier-level climate resilience — irrigation, region diversification, genetics — as a genuine risk-management criterion, not a marketing line.